Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average figure of per-day murders each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government figures. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide numbers might not indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very notable,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it may hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.