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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still