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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|