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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.