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The most severe projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by researchers, encompassing a blistering 4C increase in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in ocean levels. Another scenario envisions a decline of 6C in temperature following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and power requirements.

Credible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, some of which are associated with critical climate thresholds, are viewed as improbable but plausible. The researchers stated that these scenarios filled a gap in risk assessment that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said Nigel Arnell who oversaw the research. "The nation has been formulating policy without the methods to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now given policymakers what they need to prepare for environmental results they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Spectrum of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of severe models sets out the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that temperatures could soar in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than the norm, while precipitation could be three times typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios occurring remains uncertain due to a lack of certainty about what action will be taken to address climate change and how the climate system will respond. This research was compared to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for economic stability.

Key Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation fails or if powerful amplifying effects like the tropical forests perishing release its enormous store of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is weakening and showing signs of collapse due to ocean warming. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," said the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, inundating coastal cities and towns. In contrast to the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from burning coal block solar radiation from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

These dire projections could be applied to guide the development of major projects, for example expanded cities, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also accelerate the transition to cut carbon pollution.

The research formulated the extreme models using a blend of real-world events, digital projections and scientific theory. The scenarios do not take into account broader worldwide issues such as the devastation of food supplies and geopolitical instability.

The research was initiated as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have cautioned that too little consideration was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the threats for 4C. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by certain experts.

An official statement noted: "Climate change is at the core of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the impacts."